What is it with some people's almost pornographic obsession with Fox News Channel? (Disclosure: I almost never get my news from television. I don't much care for it.)
The Washington Post reports today on a "study" that purports to show that George Bush might "owe" his 2000 election victory to FNC:
"Our estimates imply that Fox News convinced 3 to 8 percent of its audience to shift its voting behavior towards the Republican Party, a sizable media persuasion effect," said Stefano DellaVigna of the University of California at Berkely [sic] and Ethan Kaplan of Stockholm University.
In Florida alone, they estimate, the Fox effect may have produced more than 10,000 additional votes for Bush -- clearly a decisive factor in a state he carried by fewer than 600 votes. |
My, what a modest claim to make! But it sounds to me like a textbook case of a "Post Hoc Fallacy." Event B occurs after Event A; therefore, Event A must be the cause of Event B.
What kind of bullshit science is this, anyway? Actually, it is a 51-page piece of bullshit science called "The Fox News Effect: Media Bias and Voting."
Admittedly, I have not yet read the whole paper. And maybe the authors think I am supposed to be impressed and/or intimidated by things like this:
Or perhaps they want to lull me into submission with stultifying passages like: "The Fox News effect could be a temporary learning effect for rational voters, or a permanent effect for voters subject to non-rational persuasion."
But the fact remains that, nowhere in the "study" (to my reading) or in the related media reports have they established cause, only contemporaneousness.
The argument is that Fox News was the reason that people voted more conservatively. But couldn't the opposite be just as true? That is, couldn't Fox owe its existence to a rightward political trend that was already in progress?
Because FNC was created in 1996, why should I not claim that the "Republican Revolution" of 1994 was the "cause" of Fox News? Only two years separated those two events. What explains the electoral bath the Republicans took in 1998, only two years after the creation of Fox?
And how would the authors explain the countering effect of the measured left-leaning bias of almost every other media outlet, whose combined reach is infinitely greater than Fox? The answer is, they don't, and their failure to do so makes their agenda all the more transparent.
Admittedly, it was a great way for DellaVigna and Kaplan to get publicity, especially among the vast numbers of reporters who loathe Fox. But if a guy like me with only one college-level statistics course under his belt can see through them, why can't the WaPo?